National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Fort Worth, TX

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth, TX
1122 pm cdt thu sep 2 2010

.aviation...
have removed tsra from metroplex tafs...at most an isolated
shower may occur over the next couple of hours. will keep vfr
through period. only fly in the ointment is the nam wants to
develop some storms near waco late morning...so will have to keep
an eye on that overnight.

&&

.update...
squall line really fell apart quickly as it reached the cwa. will
lower pops a bit and tone down severe weather threat in other
products. otherwise...still expecting some scattered unorganized
convection over the area through the overnight hours with front
and upper level disturbance remaining in place. tr.92

&&

.prev discussion... /issued 325 pm cdt thu sep 2 2010/
mcv from this mornings convection continues to rotate just west of
tarrant county. scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across
much of the region with the strongest activity concentrated in the
southern zones in an area of higher instability. north of the
southern zones...the airmass is worked over by the morning
convection and temperatures are struggling to reach the 80s for
many locations. clouds continue to slowly clear in the
northwestern zones with the clearing line located from comanche to
mineral wells to gainesville. temperatures in this area have
climbed up nicely into the upper 80s and lower 90s. these
mesoscale features /small areas with different stabilities and the
mcv/ will all play important roles with how everything will play
out tonight and tomorrow morning as the cold front moves through
the cwa.

at 20z...the front was located in northwest oklahoma and is
quickly pushing south as north winds behind the front gust in
excess of 30 knots. showers and thunderstorms will develop along
or just behind the frontal boundary over the next couple of hours
in oklahoma as inhibition continues to weaken. with high capes and
500 mb flow around 20 knots...strong updrafts should quickly
develop after initiation. storms will initially have a wind threat
but then may be undercut by the front as it quickly moves south.
storms will continue to develop along the front as it moves south
this evening the storm mode will most likely be multi-cellular.
timing of the front/storms brings it to the northwestern zones
shortly before midnight...into the metroplex around 3am and then
through the southern zones after daybreak. given our current
environment...areas northwest of the current clearing line will
have the best chances for thunderstorms/severe weather overnight
as the front moves through. expecting any activity to weaken as it
moves into the metroplex and further south as it runs into a more
stable airmass. there may be a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms across the southern zones post frontal tomorrow
morning. the theta-e boundary associated with the front will lag
behind the wind shift at 925 and 850 mb after pushing south of
interstate 20. the nam picks up on this and shows widespread qpf
through 21z in the southern zones. will go with a 40/30 pop to
account for this.

cool/dry air will filter in slowly behind the initial wind shift.
some areas today have gotten an early preview of the temperatures
expected for this weekend. highs friday will range from the
middle 80s to lower 90s and with the dry air and light winds in
place lows saturday will reach the 50s for many outlying areas
north of interstate 20. temperatures will slowly moderate and
return to the middle 90s by monday. the next upper level
disturbance will approach north texas tuesday from the south as it
rotates around an upper ridge centered over the se conus. will
leave the 20/30 pops in the forecast for monday- wednesday.

85/nh



&&


.preliminary point temps/pops...
dallas-ft. worth, tx  69  89  63  90  65 /  50  10   5   5   0
waco, tx              72  88  62  89  61 /  40  30   5   5   0
paris, tx             69  86  58  85  58 /  50  10   5   5   5
denton, tx            69  88  58  90  59 /  60  10   5   5   0
mckinney, tx          67  87  55  87  55 /  40  10   5   5   0
dallas, tx            71  87  64  90  66 /  40  10   5   5   0
terrell, tx           69  88  60  88  60 /  40  20   5   5   0
corsicana, tx         73  89  62  89  62 /  40  20   5   5   0
temple, tx            73  90  63  90  61 /  40  40   5   5   5
mineral wells, tx     67  88  56  89  60 /  70  10   5   5   0

&&

.fwd watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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