National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Fort Worth, TX

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Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth, TX
524 pm cst sun feb 5 2012

.aviation...
no concerns with vfr next 24 hrs. mid level cigs between 070-110
kft will continue around waco where more active subtropical branch
will be overhead.

north flow around 10 kts should drop quickly down to around 5
kts/less after sunset as high pressure ridge settles in and
decoupling of cool/drying boundary layer occurs. surface high
shifts east of north tx monday evening with a return s/se flow
under 10 kts.

05/

&&


.prev discussion... /issued 333 pm cst sun feb 5 2012/
surface high pressure will settle over north texas tonight and
result in decreasing northerly winds and slightly cooler
temperatures. some spots may even fall below freezing monday morning.
monday will be mostly cloudy and slightly warmer than sunday with
highs generally in the 50s with a light northeast to east wind.

west to southwest flow aloft will prevail through mid week as an
upper low currently centered just north of the four corners region
merges with a more progressive trough moving out of canada. the
passage of the upper trough axis on tuesday will allow a cold
front to move across north texas. a few showers are possible near
the red river but moisture will be very limited so will only
include 10 percent pops.

west to southwest flow will remain over the region the latter half
of the week as a trough deepens near the west coast and drops
south to near the tip of baja by friday morning. the gfs and the
ecmwf still disagree on the movement of this system. the gfs is
the more progressive solution and merges the low with a northern
branch trough and moves it across texas on saturday. the ecmwf
keeps the upper low detached from the northern branch of the jet
and thus is further south and slower than the gfs. for now we will
keep pops low thursday and friday due to considerable uncertainty
in the path of the upper low. am inclined to trend a little closer
to the ecmwf solution since pattern recognition has shown such a
deep closed low often has difficulty ejecting to the northeast.

79

&&



.preliminary point temps/pops...
dallas-ft. worth, tx  35  54  42  59  36 /   5   5   5   5   5
waco, tx              34  54  39  59  37 /   5   5   5   5  10
paris, tx             32  53  40  57  34 /   5   5  10  10   5
denton, tx            30  53  37  59  34 /   5   5   5   5   5
mckinney, tx          31  53  38  55  33 /   5   5   5   5   5
dallas, tx            35  54  42  58  37 /   5   5   5   5   5
terrell, tx           33  54  40  57  36 /   5   5   5   5   5
corsicana, tx         34  57  41  57  38 /   5   5   5   5  10
temple, tx            35  55  39  61  37 /   5  10   5  10  10
mineral wells, tx     30  53  36  57  33 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.fwd watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/79