WxSim & NWS Forecast Temperature Comparisons

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 09-02-10 at 6:59 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-02-10 96   87 63   73 85   80 58   60 89   84 63   63
09-01-10 95 88.3 82 75 72.0 74 94   91 66   73 87   87 60   64
08-31-10 96 98.9 99 76 80.2 79 94 88.3 85 77 72.0 75 95   89 66   71
08-30-10 94 95.9 91 76 78.1 76 98 98.9 87 77 80.2 77 94 88.3 86 75 72.0 73
08-29-10 95 96.0 95 73 79.0 73 96 95.9 94 77 78.1 77 97 98.9 96 76 80.2 75
08-28-10 95 93.6 94 70 73.6 68 94 96.0 94 74 79.0 70 95 95.9 93 77 78.1 72
08-27-10 93 92.3 92 62 72.1 66 95 93.6 93 69 73.6 68 95 96.0 94 74 79.0 71
08-26-10 90 91.5 90 60 68.1 61 93 92.3 91 62 72.1 64 95 93.6 92 71 73.6 66
08-25-10 85 81.7 88 62 65.4 60 90 91.5 89 62 68.1 60 92 92.3 91 65 72.1 64
08-24-10 91 92.2 102 67 69.5 71 87 81.7 79 64 65.4 63 93 91.5 87 65 68.1 61
08-23-10 101 106.5 103 76 80.7 78 95 92.2 99 68 69.5 73 89 81.7 91 65 65.4 66
08-22-10 103 105.1 102 75 78.5 76 103 106.5 102 74 80.7 75 95 92.2 100 68 69.5 74
08-21-10 102 102.8 101 78 76.2 78 102 105.1 102 73 78.5 74 100 106.5 99 73 80.7 73
08-20-10 101 99.5 96 75 81.2 79 100 102.8 97 76 76.2 75 102 105.1 102 76 78.5 73
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 6 1 4 6 4 4 2 6 3 3 2
% Succ 61.5   46.2 7.7   30.8 50.0   33.3 33.3   16.7 54.5   27.3 27.3   18.2
Ave Error 2.3   3.3 4.6   3.6 2.5   3.9 4.2   4.6 2.9   4.1 3.5   5.6
Std Dev 1.9   2.9 2.6   2.2 1.9   3.3 3.0   3.0 2.6   3.1 2.5   3.8



Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 09-02-10 at 6:59 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-02-10 66   73 86   86 57   60 88   86 60   58 91   89
09-01-10 75 72.0 71 97 91.9 93 69   72 85   86 58   65 88   85
08-31-10 77 80.2 74 96 88.3 81 76 72.0 72 95 91.9 86 66   72 85   82
08-30-10 77 78.1 76 99 98.9 92 76 80.2 73 94 88.3 83 75 72.0 72 95 91.9 89
08-29-10 75 79.0 74 94 95.9 95 75 78.1 75 95 98.9 92 75 80.2 74 97 88.3 87
08-28-10 69 73.6 71 94 96.0 96 74 79.0 73 95 95.9 90 76 78.1 70 96 98.9 93
08-27-10 63 72.1 67 94 93.6 94 68 73.6 68 94 96.0 95 75 79.0 72 96 95.9 95
08-26-10 63 68.1 66 93 92.3 91 61 72.1 65 94 93.6 92 71 73.6 67 94 96.0 92
08-25-10 62 65.4 59 91 91.5 89 63 68.1 59 91 92.3 91 64 72.1 62 90 93.6 92
08-24-10 67 69.5 69 86 81.7 84 63 65.4 63 90 91.5 87 64 68.1 61 92 92.3 89
08-23-10 76 80.7 82 94 92.2 96 69 69.5 69 88 81.7 84 66 65.4 63 90 91.5 88
08-22-10 73 78.5 77 104 106.5 103 76 80.7 77 100 92.2 95 67 69.5 74 87 81.7 87
08-21-10 74 76.2 77 103 105.1 95 74 78.5 75 101 106.5 102 75 80.7 75 96 92.2 100
08-20-10 76 81.2 78 100 102.8 99 74 76.2 75 103 105.1 93 71 78.5 71 100 106.5 97
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 5 7 5 1 3 5 3 1 1 4 3
% Succ 7.7   38.5 53.8   38.5 8.3   25.0 41.7   25.0 9.1   9.1 36.4   27.3
Ave Error 4.1   2.9 2.5   3.4 4.4   4.1 3.4   4.5 4.1   5.9 3.4   4.2
Std Dev 2.2   2.2 2.2   3.1 3.0   3.1 2.6   2.7 2.8   4.0 2.9   2.8